11/24/2010

Analyst warns of increased US/China tensions

ELEANOR HALL: The Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, Rory Medcalf, was in Seoul when the attack happened and he says that while this is the most serious exchange of fire between the North and South in more than half a century, he doesn't expect an immediate escalation on the Peninsula.

He does warn however, that this attack massively raises tensions in the region between the US and China.

Rory Medcalf joined me earlier this morning from Seoul.

RORY MEDCALF: I guess the real problem here is that we've got a situation that could have escalated, probably won't escalate now, but it is a situation that where once the shooting gets started you really can't be sure what will happen next and that's the most concerning element.

ELEANOR HALL: Well Russia's foreign minister says it does represent a colossal danger. Australia's foreign minister says it's a reminder of the fragility of regional stability.

How high is the risk that this could lead to a full scale war?

RORY MEDCALF: At the moment I don't think it's high. I think if there was going to be escalation it would have happened yesterday.

The statement by the South Korean president that any further action will lead to retaliation from the South suggests it’s not some sort of, you know, pre-calculated combat retaliation being planned now.

So I think the ball sad to say the ball is back in North Korea's court.

The ball is also in China's court though because this opens up all sorts of wider diplomatic questions about China's role in Asian security and I think that's where the key diplomatic game is going to be played now.

ELEANOR HALL: What sort of pressure does this put on China?

RORY MEDCALF: China has had a pretty ugly year in Asia in many ways.

We've seen assertiveness by China in the maritime domain and in really supporting North Korea after North Korea had sunk a South Korean ship back in March.

So I think US-China relations are not in a good way, American patience with China is worn very thin.

There is a small window of opportunity for the US and really the international community to put pressure on China to in turn put pressure on North Korea.

China is really the economic lever we have to achieve change in North Korea.

Read more at The World Today - ABC News

Nov 24, 2010 9:47:45 AM | Current Affairs

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